Fruit Basket

Not long after the networks called Ohio, the Republican Headquarters up the street sent us a bunch of (appropriately red) apples. It was an odd gift, but we appreciated it.

Living the Hearsay

An older man stopped in front of the office and stared inside. Thinking he might want to volunteer, I went outside to greet him.

"I've been a conservative Democrat for sixty years," he said to me. Then he pointed at a sketch of Obama in the window and added, casually, "I wouldn't vote for that nigger if he was the last man on Earth."

Alpacas for Obama

Volunteers at the Obama campaign office in Asheboro, North Carolina.

Biscuitville

I've been told it's sort of like a bagel shop.

Juan y Danilo

I should have figured I would get stopped in a rural North Carolina parking lot by two well-groomed men from Colombia and Peru desperately seeking directions to a wedding.

I volunteered my iPhone.

Able Bodies

Somehow, my grandfather ended up on the cover of a book about exercise. He may not be related to the rest of us.

It's Not Particularly Noteworthy

But I'll blog it anyway: a dog just peed on me at the park.

Maybe I bear a passing resemblance to a tree.

Syracuse

"Ladies and gentlemen, the fuel truck is here."

I celebrated quietly over my laptop.

"Unfortunately," the pilot continued, "the airport has only one set of air stairs, and only person to drive them, so they aren't available right now."

We're currently stuck on the tarmac at Syracuse Hancock International Airport, waiting to be refueled before continuing on to New York City. The weather there was so bad that we ran low on fuel circling JFK.

I'm puzzled, though. What do air stairs have to do with refueling--does a man stand on the stairs holding the hose?

Economic Stimulus Package

I wish someone would nominate me for vice president so I could get a new wardrobe.

Subscriber Base

We recently sent out this brochure in hopes of securing more pro-America DemiDec subscribers.

Damages

Our rental car company charged us $15 for a dinged hubcap. I think we got off easy, considering we effectively went off-roading in a Yaris.

Bandits with Badges

A bit of a stressful night, culminating in a confrontation with five Nicaraguan police officers demanding $50 for a fictitious foreign driver's penalty. Resisted with help from my iPhone, which confirmed their claim was bogus and advised requesting their badge numbers and names. It worked: when I pulled out a pen to write down their information, they handed back our documents and let us go. We shook hands and parted about as amicably as possible. Lots of fake smiles.

Now at a small hotel directly across the street from the airport, itching.

Next Time, Flip-Flops

Looking for a rumored beach in Nicaragua, south of San Juan del Sur. We had to abandon our rental car along the side of the road and carry on by foot. Later the police escorted us back.

Horsing Around

Driving from the Managua airport to the colonial town of Granada was mostly uneventful; the highlight was not hitting a horse that had decided to graze on the highway. Now camped at a small hotel with very pink walls, an open courtyard, and lukewarm showers.

Sweet Violence

I was reserving a place to stay in Nicaragua for the weekend and came across this gem of description on a hostel website:

According to official UN reports regarding personal safety, Nicaragua is the second safest nation in the Americas, after Canada. If you come to Nicaragua and someone tries to mug you, all you have to do is yell. The assailant will then be captured, beaten, tied and handed over to the police by the citizens themselves. This is Nicaragua, sweetly violent.

We Are Foreign People

I don't rant in here often, unless you count my political posts. So allow me a moment, please.

I've been blessed with the chance to grow up not just in America, but in a part of the country where diversity is a fact of life. Yes, I attended high school at a time when sentiments against illegal immigrants were running hot--and I'm ashamed that I let them get to me as much as they did. (My father immigrated illegally from Chile.) Both before and after that, however, I've felt very little to make me uneasy about my background. (I suppose I'm also blessed with the ability to look native in lots of places, even northern China.)

Tonight, though, was one of those moments when I spotted something ugly lurking underneath a pleasant face.

My parents are selling their house. Long story short, they're running into some trouble with the buyer over water intrusion issues. Their real estate agent (one Jeff Gysin, theoretically representing them, and, indeed, professionally pleasant) wrote the following to the other agent.

"They are foreign people and don’t understand."

He then accidentally forwarded it to my parents. There's more, but that's the gist of it. In one sentence, he undermines his own clients and pinpoints their origin as the reason why they're being uncooperative.

In a phone call, he denied ever writing it. Ugly.

There's prejudice in the private sphere (bad enough) and then there's exposing it in your professional life. It's especially frustrating that my parents thought this man was looking out for their interests, when apparently he was just hearing their accents.

That One Leads 3-0

I must not have been following the news closely enough this week. In tonight's final presidential debate, McCain kept mentioning Joe the Plumber, who is apparently becoming a YouTube sensation. Problem is, I never imagined he'd actually refer to someone as "Joe the Plumber." That kind of thing would make me--what--Dan the DemiDec guy? (Okay, no comment.) Still, I naturally assumed his name was Joe DiPlaumer and he was... maybe Italian.

Other moments from the debate that I enjoyed included John the Senator rolling his eyes and blinking a lot. He was either channeling Amy Poehler channeling Katie Couric or in need of eyedrops. Also, was it just me (and the five hundred people watching with me), or did McCain refer to Governor Palin as a breast of fresh air?

Fatherly Advice

My dad is a political pundit. Every so often, he declares, boldly, something he knows to be true. In October 2000, he assured me that no Republican would ever again win the White House. (Of course, he then went out and voted for one.) In 2004, unabashed, he predicted Bush had no chance of reelection. The Iraq War, he said, was a disaster. A few swift boats and flip-flops later, he was at the local polling place... voting for the incumbent.

Nearly a year ago, he offered his latest presidential prognostication. Hillary Clinton, he said, could win against any candidate. Barack Obama had no chance. My dad derives a lot of his insight from conservative talk radio, but this particular belief was homegrown, since conservative talk radio was no fan of Clinton's.

About two months ago, he changed his tune somewhat. Obama could win if he took Clinton as his VP pick. Otherwise, he still had no chance. When Obama chose someone else, he said it was over.

Now, he says McCain can't win. I don't think he says this because he follows the percentages of http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ (to which I've outsourced all my political analysis. Seriously. Friends used to ask me my opinion. Now I give them that link.) Actually, he's probably just buying into conventional wisdom. But, for once, I believe he's right.

To qualify, though, my dad does have a bit of advice for McCain. Drop Palin and announce Romney as your new running mate. I don't think this would save him at all -- probably just make him look even more erratic. Not to mention, it would be the All-Multiple-Manors ticket. So, I hope this takes care of the "my dad is usually wrong" quota and that his broader prophecy comes true.

Multitasking in Hong Kong

I connected in Hong Kong today, after a fourteen hour journey that featured me working in the galley. It was the only place I could charge my laptop. On arriving there, I had a choice of shower or breakfast. I'd like to call it the best shower of my life. It was at least close to that, and it turns out that calculated gulps of hot water can help wash down a mealy croissant. 

Sanjai's Wedding

Believe it or not, the picture below has nothing to do with this year's presidential election.


Nearly a decade ago, my friend Sanjai and I participated in the first-ever Shakespearean political protest in Washington, D.C.. (We were the only participants.) We created a sign that looked a lot like this one and marched up and down the street in front of the White House until the Secret Service shooed us away.

I recreated the sign to use as a surprise visual aid for my toast at Sanjai's wedding. It worked; Sanjai looked dumbfounded as he pulled it out from under a rug. Since I had given an otherwise identical speech at his previous wedding, I figured I had to shake it up a little. (The previous wedding was the previous weekend, and to the same woman; otherwise, I'd have written a new toast.)

Behind it, you can see VNS Chicken, an up-and-coming Korean fried chicken chain whose owner also dabbles in SAT prep. SAT prep has its share of critics, but it is better for you than fried chicken.

The Easiest Answer

The barista at the Starbucks near YBM recognized me from a year ago. I recognized her, too - she always had a big smile and greeted me energetically.

Today, she asked me, in very basic English, "What do you do?"

There were any number of ways I could have answered this. I considered showing her a file or two on my computer. Or asking her to judge at next week's competition. But I haven't slept well this week. And my answers usually confuse people even when we speak the same language.

So I just pulled an alpaca finger puppet out of my backpack and presented it to her.

"Puppet!" she said.

"Alpaca," I explained.

Difficulties Getting Clean

This morning I presented the staff of the Metro Hotel with a showerhead.

It had been the showerhead in my bathroom until I I tried to adjust the direction of water flow from "toward the toilet" to "toward me".

Afterward I still wanted to be clean, so I took a bath. I turned out to be about 50% longer than the bathtub.

100 Won

Just for reference, parking meters in Pasadena offer a favorable conversion rate: 100 won for 25 U.S. cents, for a net savings of about 15 cents per 12 minutes of parking.

The Obama Comma

It struck me tonight that the reader comments on articles about the Democratic primary race remind me of book reviews on Amazon of The Da Vinci Code.

At least when I last looked at those reviews, about a year ago, most of those critical of The Da Vinci Code were highly literate, well-written, even stylish. They also tended to be grammatically sound. (There were exceptions, of course, especially those that criticized the novel not for flat characters or a predictable plot, but for its sacrilegious content.) Reviews praising the novel had a lot more mistakes in them - and sweeping assertions.

I'm finding that, in general, comments in support of one of the two remaining Democratic candidates are much less well written than those in support of the other. They tend to use more all caps and exclamation points. I leave it to you to determine which candidate I mean.

Unreasonable Disagreement

I haven't written much about the election here since the Iowa caucuses. I've stuck by my assessment then, in the waning days of December: that Obama is the more electable Democrat. In Wisconsin, two-third of voters in the Democratic primary agreed with me. He is far more likely than Clinton to build an effective governing majority in the Congress - and, like it or not, to inspire the American people.

Along the way, though, I've met supporters of the other candidates. In fact, in New Hampshire, I spent time with a couple who hosted the Clinton wedding thirty years ago, and with various Edwards and McCain volunteers. They all impressed me with how polite, affable and considerate they were - especially the McCain folks.

The New Hampshire defeat - what can I say? At the time, it was a surprise, and a sad one. But, in retrospect, it extended the contest in a way that has allowed voters in state after state to become part of the process. It's been an amazing form of enfranchisement. Not only does every vote matter, but, for once, every state does too. No matter who wins in the end, at least it wasn't just Iowa and New Hampshire deciding for the rest of us.

But the campaign has also gotten uglier.

* * * *

I met a woman tonight at a dinner I stopped by briefly. (I left before eating.) She belonged to a demographic that has not been voting for Obama in large numbers: older, Jewish, female. Needless to say, I'm related to this demographic down various branches of the family tree.

I've had plenty of conversations with individuals who support other candidates--not just volunteers in New Hampshire, but folks in California and elsewhere -- but this woman was Mark Penn's dream voter. She had absorbed all the Clinton rhetoric, and then some.

I can't vote for someone whose middle name is Hazan, she said. (Someone else at the table corrected her, though she didn't seem keen on Hussein either.) She went on, predictably, to declare Obama a Muslim. Others in the room chimed in. He has no experience, she said. Maybe in four years she could vote for him. (Of course, she earlier said that she could never vote for him, but I let this go.) He has no plans, she said. Millions of Americans are voting for him, she agreed. "But they are American," she said. "They think with their asses."

Her conclusion, with regard to his campaign: "What is this shit?"

My sister was there. At this point in the conversation, she suggested I leave, which seemed prudent.

There is a spiteful part of me that hopes Obama wins just because I want the bigots to be defeated. Maybe they'll see, a few years down the line, that a man with the middle name Hussein can be every bit as American as they are. The strength of this country isn't in those who it excludes, but in those who it embraces.

The Bees of Yemen

The check-in agent looked over me critically. "You're not from Yemen, are you?"

"Nope," I said, resting my pillow and a stash of banana bread on the counter. "Not Yemen. Why?"

"Well, the computer says you are."

I admitted to her that I wasn't sure I could locate Yemen on a map, unless it was a very little map and I could gesture generally toward the Middle East.

She said she wouldn't have known either, if not for the honey. They don't have any, she explained. Yemen has no bees. (My mother would like living in Yemen, I thought.) She continued: because Yemen has no bees, it has to import all its honey. (This seemed reasonable.) Every Tuesday, when she worked at SFO, many people headed to Yemen would check in with boxes and boxes of honey--more boxes than their free luggage allowance afforded.

All that talk of bees and honey made me think of Pushing Daisies.

She leaned in across the counter. "They'd try to buy me off with honey," she confided. "To avoid penalties. But rules are rules!"

Incumbency

As the Iowa caucuses open tonight, it looks like Obama is opening a slim but consistent lead in the polls on the Democratic side. For example, the Zogby tracker I mentioned earlier, which refreshes 1/3 of its results each day, had Obama move from two points back on January 1 to a near-tie yesterday to four points ahead today. For the numbers to swing 4 points in Obama's direction when the results from December 30 were dropped and the results from January 2 added, he must have been running 12 points better on January 2 than on December 30. This seems to confirm that momentum has shifted to Obama in the closing hours of the race.

Whether this was merely reflected in the January 1 Register poll or helped along by it is up to your particular theory of polling and public opinion. I tend to think it's a combination: the trend had to be there in the first place, but waking up on New Year's to see Obama "in the lead" couldn't have discouraged even more Iowans from choosing to vote for him.

But, instead of focusing on today's poll numbers, I wanted to say something more general about incumbency. An "incumbent" candidate is one who is running for reelection. Bush was an incumbent candidate in 2004, Clinton in 1996, etc. Incumbents tend to begin races with very good name recognition, while their opponents tend to be less well known. This usually gives incumbents an early lead in polls that shrinks as their opponents become better known. This is also one reason why incumbents try early on to "frame" the popular description of their opponent before voters can come to their own conclusions.

In 2004, George Bush had nearly as dramatic a history of "flip flopping" as John Kerry. He opposed the Department of Homeland Security before he supported it. He was against intervening in other countries before he was for it. Etcetera. One could argue the Kerry campaign didn't successfully hit back on Bush for this. But it would have been hard to: Bush already had four years of incumbency to form a public opinion of him. People had made up their minds about what kind of man he was. Those who opposed him opposed him because they saw him as dumb, stubborn, and so on. Those who supported him supported him because they saw him as a good, strong man of steady conviction, someone they'd rather have over for a barbecue. They wouldn't have been swayed that much by reminders of an inconsistent record that they had already lived through and chosen to support.

However, in the closing days of a race between an incumbent and a challenger, undecided voters tend "to break for" the challenger. Why would this be? A well-regarded 1980s study suggests that undecided voters already know nearly everything they need to know about the incumbent. They've had years to figure out whether or not they like him or her, and if they're still not sure a few days before the election, they can't have liked him or her very much. The challenger, at least, has the potential to be different. In 2004, this effect was probably offset by fears of terrorism, stoked by Bin Laden's last-minute message to the American people, but in general it's held up, including in the 2006 mid-term elections.

I bring this up because one Democratic candidate chose to run for the nomination as if she were the incumbent. After all, she had the name recognition of an incumbent. She had (she claims) the experience of an incumbent. Unfortunately for Clinton, it seems she also has the flip side baggage of an incumbent: many Iowans who haven't made up their minds yet are breaking for one of the challengers.

This may be one reason she's a distant third when it comes to voters' "second choices" - which will be very important tonight, since many first choice supporters of Biden, Richardson, and the other Democratic candidates will probably find their candidates not viable and be given the chance to choose again.


It's still possible Hillary Clinton will win the Iowa caucus. The numbers are tight enough and the caucusing process sufficiently unpredictable. If she does, it's a clean road to the nomination. It'll vindicate her strategy of positioning herself (some critics would say posing) as an incumbent. But it's increasingly likely she'll take second or even third, behind John Edwards. If Obama wins a convincing victory tonight, it could boost him past Clinton in New Hampshire, where he's running a few points behind but a lot of people remain undecided. (And we know how that goes.)

Clinton's campaign will continue no matter what happens in Iowa and New Hampshire, because she remains very popular in many of the big states that will vote on February 5. But if the tide is going to turn against her nationally, it'll start to turn tonight.

I'll close this section of my post with a quote from today's Zogby poll analysis. It will seem very apt if Clinton loses Iowa, and rather premature if she wins-though even then, it's something she'll need to confront in the general election.

"When it became clear that voters in Iowa were looking for change, Clinton became the candidate who kept changing, not the one of change."

* * * * *

A quick anecdote. I was sharing with a male relative of mine, who proudly voted for Bush in 1988, Perot in 1992, Clinton in 1996, Bush in 2000 and Kerry in 2004 (whether this makes him independent, indecisive or merely remorseful I can't say) that it looks like a lot of independents and Republicans will be supporting Obama in Iowa, and that this foreshadows his crossover appeal in the general election were he to win the nomination.

"They're only pretending," he said to me, "so that Clinton isn't nominated. They're afraid of her."

In other words, he sees an Iowan right-wing conspiracy.

* * * * *

So, a peek at the right wing. Until recently, it's been very confused. But it looks like Huckabee could pull out a convincing victory against Romney tonight, clearing the way for McCain to upset the deflated Romney in New Hampshire. (Huckabee, a charismatic guitar player who doesn't believe in evolution, isn't polling well in New Hampshire and has very little ground organization there.)

Once McCain wins New Hampshire, he instantly becomes the front-runner against Rudy Giuliani, who has been sitting on the sidelines simmering in scandal soup. Meanwhile, Romney implodes and goes back to hunting varmints.

It seemed unlikely a few months, but a match-up of McCain versus Clinton or Obama is more plausible by the day. And he'd do well against either.

Against Clinton, McCain can play the character card--he's a man of conviction, not a political opportunist. With his appeal to independents and moderates, he'd probably (to quote Charles Bibilos) "clobber her".

Against Obama, McCain can play the experience card--only more convincingly than Clinton could. This match-up is a tough one to call. It could go either way, especially if Obama selected an experienced running mate, like Joe Biden, and McCain selected someone younger and more hopeful, unlike Joe Lieberman. But regardless of the outcome, McCain versus Obama would probably be something that we haven't seen in a very long time in American politics: civil.

Kentucky Fried Primary

In lieu of my own post today, I refer you to the rather greasy analysis of a fellow DemiDec editor, Charles Bibilos. I disagree with him somewhat about Huckabee's chances in the general election, but concur in most other regards, especially when it comes to the fried chicken. You may also enjoy reading about his adventures with dengue fever.

The Register

Happy New Year! Due to some impending deadlines in Korea, I don't have time to write in much detail, but I wanted to add a few more words on recent developments in Iowa.

The Des Moines Register poll came out last night. In 2004, it correctly predicted the Kerry, Edwards, Dean finish. (It didn't predict Dean's scream, but polls have their limitations.) It's easy to forget now, but Kerry wasn't the favorite even two weeks before the Iowa caucuses: Howard Dean was. Both Kerry and Edwards soared in the closing days of the campaign. The Register poll picked up on that. It's well-regarded for accurately assessing who is likely to participate in the caucuses, something with which national polling companies have less experience.

With that said, the Obama campaign seemed braced for bad news. It held a morning presentation yesterday about how it was positioned to continue campaigning in other states no matter what happened Thursday. Rumors bounced about on the Internet that his numbers were looking dim. The Clinton campaign had already stabilized a lead in most other polls, including Zogby's, and some had Obama slipping into third.

The Register poll turned those findings upside-down. On the Democratic side, Obama had the support of 32% of likely caucus-goers, compared to 25% for Hillary Clinton and 24% for Edwards. On the Republican side, it showed Huckabee maintaining a similar lead over the hard-hitting Romney (32% to 26%).

It's tempting to look at these numbers and cover them as what pundits call a horse race. "Obama soars to a lead!" "Edwards stumbles in the final lap." That kind of thing. I had a professor at the Kennedy School who felt otherwise, but I believe this kind of coverage in the media has the potential to affect the margins of public opinion. Undecided voters may be more likely to choose someone with a better chance of winning. It's similar to the phenomenon in sports known as "bandwagon fans". Even my beloved Clippers had some bandwagon fans a couple years ago.

So, let's not go overboard with these results. Let's check out some of the headlines, though. In the Register, the most widely-read newspaper in Iowa, the headline reads:

"New Iowa Poll: Obama widens lead over Clinton"
MSNBC matches this word for word, minus "New Iowa Poll".
Similarly, the Washington Post runs with "Poll Shows Obama Holds 7-Point Lead in Iowa"

-- These headlines imply (a) that there is such a thing as a lead and (b) that Obama had one. The former depends on how you look at things (you could argue that not a single vote has been cast) and the latter negates the last two weeks or so of media coverage, which revolved mostly around Hillary Clinton's growing lead (particularly plausible given recent foreign events) and an angry John Edwards surging past Obama. Obama got a lot of coverage for ostensibly implying that Hillary Clinton's foreign policy experience amounted to drinking tea with the wives of foreign leaders.

The Edwards and Clinton campaigns were quick to discredit some apparent quirks in the Register poll. For one, it predicts that 45% of the people attending the Democratic caucuses will be independents and Republicans. They strongly favor Obama. If they don't show up, Clinton "pulls ahead" in the numbers. This underscores my point from the other day: Obama is the candidate who, for whatever reason, most successfully reaches out to independents and Republicans. It would make him a very effective nominee, and very hard to defeat if the Republican nominee lacks similar crossover appeal. (It's ironic that for Democrats to nominate the Democrat with the best chance of winning next November, they may need help from some non-Democrats.) However, in 2004, only 19% of caucus attendees were independents and Republicans. So for the poll numbers to hold, there has to be a significantly different turnout in 2008. It's possible, but you never know.

Similarly, the poll shows that 60% of those attending the caucuses will be doing so for the first time. This would be remarkable. Since these new attendees heavily favor Obama (75% of those who said they plan to caucus for him say they've never caucused before) it makes his position a little precarious. The best predictor of future behavior, in relationships as well as in voting, is past behavior. Then again, the Clinton and Obama campaigns are working incredibly hard to turn out new caucus-goers, so it's not at all implausible that participation rates will soar.

What to make of all this? Probably the following.

1. Obama needed some good news with which to close out the campaign. This gives him momentum heading into the caucuses. His campaign will ignore the other polls unless they change in his favor. His opponents will do the opposite, but the Register is the most widely-reported and respected poll in Iowa. Advantage: Obama.

2. Turnout is key. This is a political truism; turnout is always key. But it really, really is. The winner Thursday will depend largely on who shows up for the first time.

3. What happens within the actual caucuses is also important. They're, to say the least, peculiar, especially on the Democrats' side. People gather in a room and publicly declare their candidate preference. They gather in groups accordingly. Groups which represent less than 15% of the room are required to dissolve; their members have to choose one of the remaining "viable" candidates (or, presumably, leave, but then they might lose out on the sandwiches being provided by the Clinton campaign.) Precinct captains for each campaign try to persuade the reallocated voters to join them. Reputably, there's even some wheeling and dealing. All this makes things unpredictable.

There's not much time left, but if you like the horse race, keep an eye on the Zogby three-day daily tracking poll. Remember, it's had Clinton in the lead for a few days. Each day, it adds a new day of results and removes the oldest day. If it reflects a tightening of the race tomorrow, it could mean that the Iowa poll results helped some late breaking voters decide for Obama. A third of caucus-goers also said they were still willing to change their mind before Thursday, so what looks like a tight race could break wide open for one or another of the three leading candidates before the end.