Fatherly Advice

My dad is a political pundit. Every so often, he declares, boldly, something he knows to be true. In October 2000, he assured me that no Republican would ever again win the White House. (Of course, he then went out and voted for one.) In 2004, unabashed, he predicted Bush had no chance of reelection. The Iraq War, he said, was a disaster. A few swift boats and flip-flops later, he was at the local polling place... voting for the incumbent.

Nearly a year ago, he offered his latest presidential prognostication. Hillary Clinton, he said, could win against any candidate. Barack Obama had no chance. My dad derives a lot of his insight from conservative talk radio, but this particular belief was homegrown, since conservative talk radio was no fan of Clinton's.

About two months ago, he changed his tune somewhat. Obama could win if he took Clinton as his VP pick. Otherwise, he still had no chance. When Obama chose someone else, he said it was over.

Now, he says McCain can't win. I don't think he says this because he follows the percentages of http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ (to which I've outsourced all my political analysis. Seriously. Friends used to ask me my opinion. Now I give them that link.) Actually, he's probably just buying into conventional wisdom. But, for once, I believe he's right.

To qualify, though, my dad does have a bit of advice for McCain. Drop Palin and announce Romney as your new running mate. I don't think this would save him at all -- probably just make him look even more erratic. Not to mention, it would be the All-Multiple-Manors ticket. So, I hope this takes care of the "my dad is usually wrong" quota and that his broader prophecy comes true.